12 June 2026
Before the Opening Whistle: How Mathematics Shape the Incentives in Group-Stage Matches in the Reformed FIFA World Cup
Following a reform by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), 48 teams will compete for the trophy at the 2026 World Cup, up from the previous 32. On the surface, this promises more matches, more goals, and an even grander football celebration. But what is happening behind the scenes – in the world of incentives and mathematical probabilities? How does the possibility of third-placed teams advancing, or the replacement of goal difference by head-to-head results as the tiebreaker, reshape tactical decisions on the pitch?